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Moon Role Diminished in Trump Talks    05/21 06:12

   For a few months, everything seemed to be clicking for South Korean 
President Moon Jae-in as he pieced together crucial nuclear negotiations 
between the U.S. and North Korea following a year of intense animosity. But he 
now enters a White House meeting with President Donald Trump with his status in 
the diplomatic driver's seat in doubt.

   SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- For a few months, everything seemed to be 
clicking for South Korean President Moon Jae-in as he pieced together crucial 
nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea following a year of 
intense animosity.

   But he now enters a White House meeting with President Donald Trump with his 
status in the diplomatic driver's seat in doubt.

   Pyongyang's surprise move last week to break off a high-level meeting with 
Seoul over U.S.-South Korean military drills while threatening to cancel next 
month's summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Trump cooled what 
had been an unusual flurry of diplomatic moves from the country after a 
provocative series of nuclear and missile tests.

   It also underscored Seoul's delicate role as an intermediary between 
Washington and Pyongyang and raised questions about Moon's claim that Kim has 
genuine intent to deal away his nukes.

   Seoul may lose much of its voice if Trump chooses to deal more directly with 
China, North Korea's only major ally, which is refusing to be sidelined in the 
global diplomatic push to resolve the nuclear standoff.

   Seoul's presidential office said this week's meeting between Moon and Trump 
will be mainly focused on preparing Trump for his summit with Kim, scheduled 
for June 12 in Singapore.

   A look ahead at the Moon-Trump meeting and the challenges they face with Kim:

   ___

   WHITE HOUSE TO SINGAPORE

   Seoul insists Kim can be persuaded to abandon his nuclear facilities, 
materials and bombs in a verifiable and irreversible way in exchange for 
credible security and economic guarantees.

   Moon and Trump will likely discuss potential steps that Trump can put on the 
table in Singapore. Their meeting at the White House may also include 
discussions on setting up three-way talks with Pyongyang or four-way talks also 
including Beijing to negotiate a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War, which 
ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty.

   Moon and Trump may exchange views on whether the allies should temporarily 
modify their joint military drills while engaging in denuclearization 
negotiations with North Korea, said Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea expert at 
Seoul's Dongguk University and a policy adviser to Moon. There could also be 
deeper discussions on the future of the U.S.-South Korea alliance.

   South Korea maintains an optimistic outlook for the Trump-Kim talks. Moon's 
foreign minister, Kang Kyung-wha, told South Korean lawmakers last week that 
the North has issued a commitment for "complete denuclearization." However, she 
said there's a "difference in opinions between the North and the United States 
over the methods to achieve denuclearization."

   Officials in Washington have talked about a comprehensive one-shot deal 
where the North fully eliminates its nukes first and receives rewards later. 
But Kim, through two separate summits with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in March 
and May, has called for a phased and synchronized process where every action he 
takes is met with a reciprocal reward from the United States.

   ___

   THE DREADED "D'' WORD

   Despite Seoul's reassurances, it remains unclear whether Kim will ever agree 
to fully relinquish his nukes, which he likely sees as his only guarantee of 
survival. For decades, North Korea has been pushing a concept of 
"denuclearization" that bears no resemblance to the American definition, vowing 
to pursue nuclear development unless Washington removes its troops from South 
Korea and the nuclear umbrella defending South Korea and Japan.

   Kim declared his nuclear force as complete in November, following the 
country's third flight test of an intercontinental ballistic missile. At a 
ruling party meeting in April, the North announced that it was suspending all 
nuclear and ICBM tests and will close its nuclear testing ground because its 
mission had come "to an end."

   The announcements were clearly designed to communicate that Kim sees himself 
as entering the negotiations with Trump from a position of strength and expects 
to be treated as a leader of a full-fledged nuclear state.

   "The success of the Trump-Kim meeting will be determined by whether it turns 
out to be a denuclearization negotiation or an arms reduction negotiation 
between two nuclear states," said Du Hyeogn Cha, a visiting scholar at Seoul's 
Asan Institute for Policy Studies. "So far, the North has built conditions for 
the meeting to become the latter."

   Trump may find it difficult to politically justify a deal with North Korea 
that's significantly less than a "complete, verifiable, irreversible 
denuclearization" when he just abandoned a major nuclear deal with Iran that he 
claimed was too weak.

   But it's not clear whether he can coax a stronger deal from North Korea than 
the one Barack Obama got from Iran. Iran's nuclear program is nascent and its 
weapons capability theoretical. North Korea's arsenal now includes purported 
thermonuclear warheads and developmental ICBMs potentially capable of striking 
the continental United States.

   ___

   CHAMPAGNE POPPED TOO EARLY?

   While Seoul can be credited for coordinating the diplomatic approach toward 
North Korea, South Korean officials may have been too optimistic about the 
signs they were seeing from Pyongyang.

   During a March visit to the White House where Trump agreed to a summit with 
Kim, Moon's national security director, Chung Eui-yong, said Kim told visiting 
South Korean officials in Pyongyang that he "understands" that the joint 
military exercises between the allies "must continue." This was then seen as an 
important departure from the past, when the North thoroughly rejected the 
drills.

   But Kim has yet to deliver any similar comment on record. In lashing out 
last week against the U.S.-South Korean drills and Trump's hard-line national 
security adviser, John Bolton, North Korea used familiar language to justify 
its nuclear weapons, saying the United States must eliminate its "hostile 
policy and nuclear threats and blackmail" against the North as a "precondition 
for denuclearization."

   It's possible that Chinese President Xi persuaded Kim to adopt a tougher 
stance over U.S.-South Korean drills during their summits, Cha said.

   Kim might have asked China to soften its enforcement of sanctions aimed at 
the North. He also might have sought Chinese commitments to strongly oppose any 
military measure the United States might take should his talks with Trump fall 
apart and the North starts testing missiles again.

   "It's hard to say there are clear signs that the North is employing a 
meaningfully different approach on denuclearization," Cha said.


(KA)

 
 
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